什麼是未來學

研究當前趨勢以預測未來發展之一門社會科學。其研究法則源自第二次世界大戰快結束時發展出的，並檢討一場核戰爭的潛在後果。1960年代的研究是預測未來社會模式和需求。1972年梅多斯與麻省理工學院的同事聯合發表《成長的極限》一文，報告中以全球各種社會經濟趨勢爲重點，提出一項馬爾薩斯式觀點，認爲人口增加、工業擴張、污染惡化、糧食生產不足、天然資源枯竭的速度如再以當前的趨勢繼續下去的話，勢必導致世界秩序崩潰。有關這些觀點和其他研究的評論，主要是針對所列舉模式的侷限性和由此提出的各項規劃的主觀臆斷性。未來學家本身大致上認識到這種種困難，但卻強調其分析技巧已因吸取數學、經濟學、環境研究及電腦學各方面的研究成果而日趨精細。其他重要的未來學基本着作有托夫勒的《未來震撼》（1970）、貝爾的《後工業社會的來臨》（1973）、謝爾的《地球的安危》（1982）和考爾德的《綠色機器》（1986）。

futurology

Study of current trends in order to forecast future developments. The field originated in the “technological forecasting” developed near the end of World War II and in studies examining the consequences of nuclear conflict. Studies in the 1960s sought to anticipate future social patterns and needs. The Limits of Growth by Dennis Meadows et al. (1972) focused on global socioeconomic trends, projecting a Malthusian vision in which the collapse of the world order would result if population growth, industrial expansion, pollution, food production, and natural-resource use continued at current rates. Later reports reiterated many of these concerns, with critics contending that futurologists' models were flawed and futurologists responding that their analytic techniques were becoming increasingly sophisticated. Other notable works include Alvin Toffler's Future Shock (1970), Daniel Bell's The Coming of Post-Industrial Society (1973), Jonathan Schell's The Fate of the Earth (1982), and Nigel Calder's The Green Machines (1986).